The run of the roses is upon us! In two days’ time our eyes will be fixed upon the beautiful Churchill Downs racetrack for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby. This year’s race is shaping up to be nothing short of thrilling. Most of these brutes ran against each other in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in November with Hansen being the eventual winner. There were 13 horses in the BC Juvenile and out of those 13; nine of them went on to win graded stakes races in 2012.
From speed horses to the closers this race seems to have it all. Regarding the speed you have horses like Bodemiester, Hansen, Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another and Trinniberg. All of these horses like to be out in front or pretty close to the lead. With this much speed I presume they will likely tire each other out. This scenario should benefit horses such as Union Rags, El Padrino and Creative Cause who like to sit just off the lead and make their move around the final turn. Horses such as Daddy Nose Best and Alpha will be the big time closers making their move from the back of the pack.
Running in the Derby can be quite a challenge. These horses will rarely be involved in another field size such as this and most will find out that the mile and a quarter distance is too much to handle. Throw in other factors such as the post position and the weather and now the mountain you wanted to climb just got that much bigger.
With all of this being said I will disclose my top five picks for this year’s Derby. Keep in mind this list is just reflecting who I think will actually win the Derby; the exotics are a whole different story my friends…
Top Five Win Candidates
1 – Union Rags (PP- 4, ML = 9/2): The colt that tops my list this year is none other than Union Rags. Number two on my list is the powerful Union Rags. The Michael Matz trainee finished third in the Gr. I Florida Derby back on March 31st. This is another colt that has yet to finish off the board and like Creative Cause he always seems to have more run in him. Union Rags has had some very nice workouts since being at Churchill Downs which is why he is still one of my top contenders. The fast pace should be very beneficial to the Dixie Union Colt. Julien Leparoux will be the rider aboard Union Rags.
2 – Gemologist (PP-15, ML = 6/1): Number two on my list is the undefeated Gemologist. The Tiznow colt has climbed up in my top two due to his recent workouts and his strong finish last time out. The bay ran a solid race in the Gr. I Wood Memorial holding off a late rallying Alpha. Gemologist also has two wins at Churchill Downs so far in his career so this is a plus in my eyes. I feel Gemologist has taken one of the easier roads coming into the Derby but I do like his pedigree and he should last a little longer than some of the other speed horses. Javier Castellano will be the riding Gemologist on Saturday.
3 – Creative Cause (PP-8, ML = 12/1): The colt that rounds out my top three is none other than Creative Cause. The son of Giant’s Causeway has yet to finish off the board in all eight of his career starts. Creative Cause has finished strong in all of his races and always appears to have more in his tank. The extra distance should prove valuable to the Mike Harrington trainee. Jockey Joel Rosario will be in the irons for the grey come Derby day.
4 – Daddy Nose Best (PP-10, ML = 15/1): This colt is one I have been big on since seeing his win in the Gr. III El Camino Stakes at Golden Gate. He has ran against some stiff competition and has shown his heart when it matters down the stretch. I also like the fact that this horse has ran well over numerous tracks. The ‘Daddy’ has been working very well at Churchill since his arrival and with Garrett Gomez taking over the saddle, I am expecting this bay to run very well.
5 – El Padrino (PP-16, ML = 20/1): Finishing off my top five is the chestnut colt trained by Todd Pletcher. El Padrino was recently seen finishing fourth behind Union Rags in the Gr. I Florida Derby under Javier Castellano. After watching this race several times I still think Castellano was more worried about Union Rags than anything else. Rafael Bejarano will take the mount on El Padrino come Derby Day and I think this will be a plus for the son of Pulpit. This horse also seems to flourish on a wet surface so if it is wet come Derby Day, he will likely be my top pick.
IMHO, the biggest plorbem is the lack of a single governing body. Every other sport has one, but horse racing does not. Without such a body it is impossible to address the plorbems listed above and others. No one has enforcement authority, no one can set policies that apply across the industry, there is no clear marketing message, there’s no lobbying group, etc.But let’s look at your list.A) Abuse of horses in training is not a big plorbem. Racehorses are, by and large, a pampered lot even at low-level tracks. They’re not volunteers, but they are natural runners and most of them like to race. Crops may look abusive, but they are heavily padded and are designed primarily to make noise. The biggest humane issue facing the industry is what to do with these horses after they have retired or if they never make it to the track. Far too many still go to slaughter or suffer other neglect. The industry tends to support and endorse rescue efforts, some farms have their own retirement programs, and some groups such as the New York Racing Association have anti-slaughter policies. However, there is no consistency and no means to guarantee these horses a future. It should be noted that the plorbem of unwanted horses goes way beyond Thoroughbreds.B) Steroids are no longer allowed, so their use has decreased. Of course, abuses occur. The bigger plorbem is what to do about legal medications. The two main ones are Lasix (furosemide) and Bute (phenylbutazone, an NSAID). Lasix is widely used in the U.S. Its purpose is to control bleeding in the respiratory system, but it enhances performance and so is used by all horses, bleeders or not. Bute, a painkiller, makes it more likely that a horse with a minor injury will run and become even more injured, perhaps suffering a catastrophic injury. These medications are not used outside North America (I don’t know about Canada). Some entities such as The Jockey Club have come out in favor of a ban on race-day medications, and Federal legislation has been proposed.C) Declining attendance is certainly a plorbem. More specifically, the decline in handle i.e., revenues from wagering, is an issue. Handle is what supports purses and provides monies to operate tracks. The industry needs to appeal to potential new bettors while retaining current players. Some related plorbems are small fields of horses and poor-quality races that don’t appeal to bettors, competition from other gambling venues, an aging demographic, and high takeout, which reduces the payouts to bettors. The industry also does not do a good job making money off of non-bettors.Other plorbems: star horses leaving training early for more lucrative stud careers, less durable racehorses whether due to poor training practices or to bad breeding practices, lack of media coverage especially television, on-track safety issues (breakdowns) and what to do about them, overbreeding, difficulty getting new blood into the industry, and overall sensitivity to the economy.What’s good about the industry? First and foremost, horses! A running Thoroughbred is a beautiful sight. Most of the people in the industry and most fans really do love and care about these animals. Social media has brought new fans. Social media also makes it easier to assist horses in need, and it has made fundraising much easier. Occasionally a superstar such as Zenyatta comes along and makes people fall in love not just with her, but with racing in general. Veterinary science is improving the prospects for injured and ailing horses who would have been destroyed just a few years ago. edited to fix typos