Finding False Favorites In Saturday’s $10K HANA Game

Derby Wars is proud to introduce Tony Bada Bing, the man with the plan to help you grow as a tournament player! His first topic – finding false favorites in Saturday’s $10,000 Game sponsored by HANA.

By Tony Bada Bing

While I have been writing a blog over at Horse Racing Nation that ties into Derby Wars action here, today’s entry will be the first – inaugural – blog onsite. Why the wait, you may ask. The answer is far too technical and really does not matter.

What does matter is trying to help you find some right-priced winners, so hopefully, you, too, can cash at one of the most innovative and fun horse racing tournament sites. To this end, each week I will be concentrating on strategies that handicappers use to aid their pari-mutual wagers, which I think nicely translates to tournament-style play here at Derby Wars. The races I choose each week will somehow tie into this angle and again, hopefully, prove profitable.

In addition, I’m looking to generate some discussion amongst fans, followers and players. Add your two cents and tell me or another commenter what you think. Of course, be respectful of others while posting an opinion or don’t bother. Horseplayers require opinions, not the vitriol that sometimes goes along with them. Sure religion or politics may make for uncomfortable conversations around the Thanksgiving table, but as long as they consider the other’s point-of-view and respect that not everyone thinks alike, they can be made.

Moving on from the disclaimers, let’s get to today’s strategy: finding false favorites.

False favorites are those horses whose morning line – and likely race line – far out weigh their chances of winning. Thus, the horseplayer who can sniff out these likely over bet favorites will find himself other choices at much juicier prices. In playing Derby Wars “bullet style” games, which bankrolls only win-place payouts, exposing just one or two false favorites and correctly playing against them can be the difference between placing and also-ran status.

To illustrate today’s point, let’s look at the card for the $10K HANA Game. Race 6 at Aqueduct, a non-winners of one event at the one-turn mile gives us what I think are two false favorites in one felt swoop. Le Bernardin is a classic play against for one very important reason – he’s a maiden facing winners for the first time. This is likely the toughest assignment for any horse, well thought or not.

Le Bernardin is by Classic winner, Bernardini, owned by Darley Stable and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. With those connections this last out winner will probably be closer to 8-5. By the way, he was never contested in his merry-go-round win at six furlongs against just five other maidens. The distance and competition increase here.

Funny the other favorite in here – Macho Dorado – falls into an entirely different category, new guy in town. Either privately purchased or owners that decided to move east, Macho Dorado is a consistent sort, consistent in mid-level claimers running at or near the lead. But I guess, the new scenery, the new trainer and new rider were too much for the line maker, that and Macho Dorado’s six wins.

The biggest problem with the top two choices is their similar up front, on the pace running styles, which also conflicts with at least two others in here. If I am correct, some sort of speed duel, including the top two choices will ensue, opening the door for a stalker or closer.

Game Token is as salty as they come. A New York-bred who has run 40 times in three years and has won or placed 17 times. He also has two wins and two seconds racing at this 1-mile distance and two wins from five starts on Aqueduct’s main track. The recent form is solid and if the speed retreats at all, Game Token will overtake the front-runners in the stretch and pay mightily.

Other favorites who might be false on Saturday and deserve a play against in the $10,000 HANA Game:

Trinniberg, who races in the 7-furlong Bay Shore, is likely to bounce off his career best number at the always speed-favoring Gulfstream Park. Long shot alternative: Maan

Caleb’s Posse is as honest as they come, but I prefer not to take a closer in a sprint, especially in a sprint race devoid of early speed as is renewal of the Carter. Mid-priced alternative: Emcee may either steal this up front or pounce the quickest on whoever takes the lead.

Al Khali hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since September 2010 and while this a few notches below the stakes company he has held, Keenland’s money allowance has come up tough. There’s a host of others I’d take here, but I believe the best is Air Support who may have the greatest upside in his first start as a 4-year-old.

Stephanie’s Kitten leads a weak Ashland Stakes and I really can’t get behind coming off such a long layoff into a grade I race. Healthy alternative: Heart of Destiny, second off the layoff and who just missed against the top choice back in October at Keenland.

Good Luck in this weekend’s Big Game!

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