This guest post is by Lenny Moon of Equinometry.
Skim through the past performances of any race card at any track on any day and you will find a diverse group of races. Races on the main track, be it dirt or synthetic, and races on the turf, sprints and routes, races for fillies and races for colts, maiden races, claiming races, allowance races and stakes races, big fields and small fields. No two races are exactly alike but a general handicapping strategy can be applied to those that have similar conditions.
The same principle is true of handicapping contests. Handicapping contests come in all different shapes and sizes and no two are ever exactly the same but those that have similar conditions can be approached in the same way.
Read the Conditions
The first step in handicapping a race is to read the conditions of the race in order to determine what type of horse is most likely to win. Similarly the first step in preparing for a handicapping contest is to read the rules (or conditions) of the contest to determine what it will take to win. Derby Wars for example offers several types of handicapping contests including: Head to Head, Survivor and Traditional Format.
Head to Head contests pit two players against one another in a winner-takes-all competition where the only goal is to accumulate a higher score than your opponent.
Survivor contests require the players to select one horse to finish first, second or third in each race. If a players horse fails to finish in the top three that player is eliminated. The player that lasts the longest is declared the winner.
Traditional Format contests are the most common type of contests and require the players to select one horse in each of the designated contest races. Players are awarded a mythical $2 to Win and Place on their selection if the horse finishes first or second. The player with the highest score at the end of the contest wins.
What is the Par?
When handicapping a race it is beneficial to know what the Par Time or Par Speed Figure is for each race. This allows you to quickly determine which horses are capable of producing an effort that will win a normal race with the given conditions.
Similarly it is very helpful to know the Par Score for a handicapping contest. The Par Score for a handicapping contest can be determined by looking at the results of similar contests. For example after looking at several years results for Traditional Handicapping Contests I determined the Par Score to be $11.12 per race. So for a 10 race contest the Par Score (or average winning total) would be $111.20, although to be safe I usually round up to the next dollar and shoot for a total of $120.00 (or $12.00 per race).
The most important thing to remember when determining the Par Score is to look at handicapping contests that have similar rules (or conditions), similar field sizes and similar entry fees. Fortunately most online handicapping sites keep an archive of their past contests which makes determining the Par Score only a few minutes of work. To access past contests results on Derby Wars simply click the Closed tab on the home page and every contest that has been offered is available for review.
Winning Strategies
Head to Head
As previously mentioned Head to Head contests involve two players. With the smallest possible field size it can be assumed that on average the Par Score is going to be relatively low. The best strategy for Head to Head contests is to shoot for the highest strike rate (rate of picking winners) and avoid trying to connect on one or two low probability long shots only resorting to the latter if the other player has a large lead late in the contest. The focus should be on picking the horse you believe is the most likely winner.
Survivor
Survivor contests are simple enough, just pick one horse to finish in the top three and move on, but they are not as easy as one would think. Picking the favorite in every race would be the safest strategy but considering the favorite will finish out of the top three roughly once every three races that is a surefire path to failure. Likewise picking long shots that few players selected will also be a quick path to elimination because long shots finish in the money infrequently. The best strategy is to pick logical horses that fit on the fundamentals of handicapping: Form, Class, Speed and Pace. I prefer horses that can be classified as pace pressers or stalkers, that is they sit behind the frontrunners but ahead of the closers. The reason I avoid frontrunners and closers is they are at the mercy of the pace. Frontrunners that get caught in a speed duel typically tire in the stretch and finish off the board. Closers that find themselves behind a slow pace are at a similar disadvantage and may not be able to make up enough ground to catch the top three in the stretch.
Traditional Format
Traditional Format contests (called Bullets on Derby Wars) are those that involve a set number of races in which each player is given a $2 Win and Place mythical wager on their selection. The goal is to accumulate the highest score. This type of contest has a much more complex strategy than the other two formats. The field size and entry fee will determine the best strategy for Traditional Format contests.
Effects of Field Size and Entry Fee
Field Size
The size of the field will effect the Par Score and whether or not to be aggressive or conservative. The smaller the field the more likely the Par Score will be lower and therefore players can be more conservative in their selections. The larger the field the more likely the Par Score will be higher and therefore players should be more aggressive in their selections. The reason behind this is that an impossible long shot is more likely to be selected when more players are involved and vice versa.
Entry Fee
Just like field size the entry fee will effect the Par Score and whether or not to be aggressive or conservative. Contests with smaller entry fees typically attract newer players that are more likely to select higher priced horses. Contests with higher entry fees typically attract veteran players that are more likely to select mostly logical horses.
Do Your Homework
Handicapping before the races begin is the best strategy when betting on horses and likewise handicapping the contest races before the contest starts is the best strategy for handicapping contests. After handicapping each of the races make a list of contenders grouping the horses into three categories: top choice, back-ups and bomb horses. Top Choice is the most likely winner according to your handicapping. Back-ups are the next most likely winners. Bomb horses are long shots (12/1 or higher) that have some chance of winning (and can also be part of one of the other groups).
The general rule of thumb is to select mostly horses in the range of 5/1 to 15/1, although it is also acceptable to accept a few above or below that range. The mix of prices should be determined based on how aggressive or conservative the overall strategy will be based on the criteria mentioned above. Just remember that most contests are not won by picking all favorites and most are not won by picking all long shots.
After coming up with a list of contenders for each race make a schedule of the races with post times and contenders (or you can use the tool I created for just this purpose, The Handicapping Tournament Matrix, which you can download for free after signing up for my email newsletter).
Make Adjustments
Doing your homework will make life a lot easier and will allow making adjustments after scratches are announced the day of the contest much easier. Do not ignore scratches or program changes as they can have a huge impact on the outcome of a race. Take a few minutes to reassess each race that has changes and make adjustments to your selections accordingly.
And Away They Go
In horse racing many races are won and lost in the first quarter of a mile. Getting out of the gate and getting into a comfortable position is the most important part of the race. Similarly getting off to a good start in a handicapping contest is very important because…
Speed is the Universal Bias
In American horse racing Speed is widely recognized as the universal bias especially in main track races. Frontrunners win more than their fair share of races. Frontrunners simply go to the lead, run as fast as they can for as long as they can and hope to hold on.
From my experience frontrunners also do very well in handicapping contests. The players that start off strong are usually at the top of the leader board at the end of the day. This idea was reinforced while I was preparing for the National Handicapping Championship (NHC) earlier this year. The NHC has been held for the past 12 years, the last 11 of which are under the current format. In those 11 years the winner was:
- In the Top 9 after Day 1 8 times
- In the Top 19 after Day 1 9 times
- In the Top 28 after Day 1 10 times
Only one winner was worse than 28th after the first day in 11 editions of the NHC and this year was no exception. Michael Beychok was in 24th after Day 1 before rallying late on Day 2 to win the million dollar top prize by a single dollar.
The biggest advantage of starting off strong is being able to stick with your selections. Most of my good recent performances including my fifth place finish in the March Derby Wars $25,000 Shootout and my fifth place finish in the Twinspires Online Handicapping Championship occurred because I started off strong and was able to stick with my top selections throughout the contests. In the handicapping contests I performed poorly in recently I got off to a poor start in every one of them and therefore had to either go with my third or fourth choice or even worse had to select a horse I deemed a non-contender during my preparation.
Be Patient and Be Flexible
In the event that you get off to a poor start be patient but be flexible as well. Stick with your top choices for as long as possible because they are the horses that you have selected as the most likely winners but do not be afraid to select a back-up or bomb horse if the price is right. Remember that slow and steady wins the race and you are more likely to slowly grind your way back to the top then to do so in one race. I say this from years of experience trying it the other way.
Review Your Results and Keep Records
Serious horseplayers know that reviewing each bet made and keeping detailed records is vital to becoming and staying a winner and so do serious handicapping contest players. Each contest should be a learning experience used to improve future results. Review both winning and losing selections and determine what worked and what did not. Make note of any important discoveries that may lead to winning selections in the future. This step is often forgotten or overlooked by most handicapping contest players so those that do it will be a step ahead of the competition.
Final Thoughts
Handicapping contests are no different than every day handicapping. The players that understand what strategies to employ based on the conditions (or rules) of the contest will be the ones that have the most success. Just remember that success will come with experience and to those that take the time to prepare ahead of time and to review their results afterwards. Good luck and do not hesitate to send me a friend request here on Derby Wars if you want to say hello or want to chat about horse racing. My username is Equinometry.
Lenny Moon is an avid horseplayer and handicapping contest player who has spent the past 13 years trying to master the art of handicapping and betting on horses. He is also the founder of Equinometry.com, a website designed to help horseplayers of all levels learn about horse racing handicapping, betting and handicapping contests.
