Handicapping The Competition

Posted on September 10, 2012 by DerbyWars

By Eric Moomey (moomeyer on DerbyWars)

A few weeks back, I was at a Keeneland tournament awaiting for the winners to be announced and wondering why I wasn’t on top the leaderboard. For my first of 15 races I hit a 37-1 winner that tied me for the lead, so it was a bit of a letdown to finish no better than 17th. When the top 25 were announced, the 7th place finisher, DerbyWars player Matthew B. (abidetowin) introduced himself and congratulated me on being such a great handicapper. I thanked him and we enjoyed talking about each other’s recent successes and the enjoyment of sites like DerbyWars.

When abidetowin praised me as a good handicapper, I’m pretty sure he meant my ability to review past performance data and select winning horses. While I do consider myself a “pretty good handicapper” it is not based on handicapping horses, but rather handicapping my fellow tournament players. Just imagine, wouldn’t it be valuable if you could predict your competition’s next selection. As it turns out, you can with a fair degree of accuracy, as there are several prominent trends in tournaments that repeat frequently. All this “past performance” information on your fellow tournament players is available on the online tournament sites such as DerbyWars.

Before we discuss some of these trends, let’s examine how to finish first in a large format
tournament (a tournament with many players but only one winner). Other than being extremely lucky that day, I only see two ways that people win tournaments. In either case, you will greatly benefit from knowing selections your competition is likely to make throughout the tournament.

1. You enter the last race so far ahead of your competition that the winning horse of the last race is insufficient to change the final standings.

2. You select a winner in the final race that no one above you on the leaderboard selects, giving you sufficient funds to finish ahead of your competition. A good example of this is the recent DerbyWars $30,000 Labor Day Shootout where with one race to go, the contestant in 14th place, Scott P. (IceIam) who was $44.20 behind the leader, selected a 31-1 shot (the highest odds on the board) that catapulted him to the lead at the crucial time. Since he was so far behind the leader, a 15-1 shot would most surely have been blocked by those above. Picking a horse well above the cap was exactly what it took to get the job done.

In the first situation, the best way to “pull away” from your competition is to select a long-shot horse early in the contest that few are likely to select. In a 10-race tournament, there will be at least one long shot winner (20-1+ odds) 42% of the time. A long shot in the first race will be selected by no more than 3% of the players, but the same horse will likely be selected by as many as 20% of players if in the last race of the contest. In the first free NHC tour contest this year, 42 of the 1746 entries selected a 40-1 winner in the first race of the tournament, giving me and 41 other players an overwhelming advantage over their competition. I was fortunate to finish in 2nd place and qualify for my first-ever NHC seat.

In the second situation, if you are fortunate enough to enter the last race near the lead, it might be helpful to know that less than half of the leaders coming into the last race will select the favorite as their final selection, despite knowing that horse is the most likely winner. In another DerbyWars 30K shootout earlier this year the person who was in second place on the leaderboard finished first by selecting the favorite in the last race. The player that was in the lead commented, “I can’t believe you selected the favorite…very ballsy!” While this play might have been ballsy considering that a long shot winner would cost him his 2nd place finish, this person was able to correctly select the winner that no one above them were likely to select and claim the $10K top prize…perfect execution!

Each and every horse has at least some chance to win every race, if you can read your competition you just might find that horse with “reasonable” chances that most other players overlook. My challenge to you is to dare to be different and find your own path to success. It will take a little courage, but it will certainly pay off in time.

At the end of this month, I will match my skills against some of the best players in the game in the $150,000 HP Qualify Players Challenge. Will I play different than my competition…you bet! Will I come out on top? I don’t know, but I can’t wait to find out! Wish me luck!

 

Eric (Moomeyer) got his start playing handicapping tournaments on DerbyWars and has won over $13,000, racking up 62 wins on DerbyWars. He qualified for the NHC for the first time in 2012.

169 Responses to Handicapping The Competition

  1. John says:
    September 11, 2012 at 3:36 pm

    Eric….I’m in awe of players like you. But I’m still not convinced that players that win contests consistently or the people that qualify for NHC every year do it just because they’re great handicappers. Not sure, but I think there are too many things that go on during a horse race to be that consistent…..I really think players of your caliber have another higher gear (sense, intuition) to make these selections…..like a professional athlete – they have that something “intangible” extra that makes them better than everyone….even great! Its not luck…..

  2. Lenny says:
    September 11, 2012 at 5:05 pm

    Eric,

    Great point about picking horses that others will not. Be it a crazy long shot or the favorite. Most people refuse to pick the favorite even when the horse looks unbeatable. If you cannot find a viable alternative why pass on the free $6 to $8 you will get a heavy favorite?

    • John says:
      September 11, 2012 at 7:40 pm

      Eric…..a lot of times they might pass the fav because they’re looking for that 30-1 shot to finish 2nd. How many times have we picked the winner of the 1st race in a contest and not be in the lead because the place horse paid $20.00 These contests can be very frustrating. Lots of strategy required for sure.

  3. chris says:
    September 11, 2012 at 9:07 pm

    I like your strategy. The article says you have 62 wins and have won over 13k..I’m sure you’ve entered 200, maybe over 300 tournaments..Have you shown a profit. One more thing..Do you find it cost effective to buy more then one entry in a tournament?

  4. Ron says:
    September 13, 2012 at 12:46 pm

    Well put Eric. You will continue to be ahead of the curve. The reason is most of us old time handicappers look at the horses rather than the odds, We are probably not ready to buy into the Game Theory or Interactive Decision Theory in Handicapping contests. It is the recent trend and it is beating us out of seats to the NHC. That said, it is the game today. Thanks for opening my eyes and reinforcing my thoughts. Now I just need a dose of “what the heck”. And to the John who said you were in a higher gear. I believe that.

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