Derby Wars’ Dave Gutfreund gives players a few hints to improve your tournament play!
Know Your Tournament by Dave Gutfreund
One of the many terrific things about Derby Wars is the variety of games offered on a daily basis. And certainly there are different strategies which work better in different games.
Because of this, it is vital for players to be aware of exactly what contest he/she is participating when mapping out a game plan. Very simply put, proper game theory in a head-to-head tournament is nowhere near the same as it is in an bigger event when trying to defeat more than 100 people. And Survivor games – that’s a whole different animal.
Regarding life in general as well as handicapping contests, yours truly is a proponent of the KISS (keep it simple, stupid) approach. As I watch the happenings on Derby Wars, far too often, one of the biggest and most frequent ‘mistakes’ which I witness is something in the world of poker referred to as ‘fancy play syndrome’…which essentially takes place when players ‘outsmart’ themselves by trying to be too creative.
For example, in a Survivor contest, this can happen when a player has a negative view on a favorite and likes a 20-1 shot, then decides to use the 20-1 animal in the Survivor game. I’m all for throwing out a favorite which could run off of the board, but knowing there will be three horses which move players forward to the next race means there are clearly other horses than your 20-1 shot who are far more likely to run 1-2-3.
While in Survivor games, who one picks towards the end of a contest isn’t likely to change based on the constantly updating standings…that is certainly not the case in just about all of Derby Wars’ other games. ‘End-game’ theory is very relevant in most of our contests and players should always be prepared to make difficult decisions sometimes based more on math than on handicapping to give themselves the best chance at success.
Whether by being home and in front of computer or being out and about with mobile access to Derby Wars, players really should check their contest status late in a tournament in order to make proper mathematical adjustments if in contention. Obviously, this can mean stabbing at a longshot if far behind but also can involve taking a favorite instead of a price horse to hang onto a narrow lead or to move up a spot or two.
I look forward in upcoming weeks and months to discuss some of these ideas/thoughts in much more detail but for that’s all for now other than to remind you to remember what contest you are competing in and try to make the best decisions for that particular event.
