Will I’ll Have Another take another jewel of the Triple Crown?
Or will Bodemeister exact his revenge?
The quest for racing’s ultimate prize heats up Saturday in the Preakness, and you can play it on Derby Wars!
The $10,000 Preakness Game is limited to 150 entries and has a $77 buy-in. However, you can win your way in with qualifiers starting Wednesday!
First prize is a bankroll-boosting $2,500!
Here’s the complete prize list:
Enter today to earn Early Bird Bonus points!
The “Ubercapper”, Ellis Starr, is not only a handicapper for Equibase and frequent horse racing commentator for national broadcasts, he is also a regular Derby Wars player.
Here are his picks for Kentucky Derby 2012!
Gemologist – Impressed me in Wood as he made lead then waited on Alpha before kicking in again. Has not peaked yet and third start of his three-year-old season could be his best effort yet. Career best 114 Equibase Speed Figure in Wood tops the field. Has won at Churchill Downs. Castellano has been his only pilot.
Dullahan – Also making his third start of the year so has more improving to do. 111 Equibase Speed Figure in Blue Grass was a career best but not the best we’ve seen from him. With Trinniberg setting fast fractions, may only need an unobstructed path in the stretch to win again.
Went the Day Well – Taking same path is Animal Kingdom did last year for same connections (Team Valor, Graham Motion, John Velazquez) and is another on a pattern for improvement. Gets blinkers and that could mean a significant improvement off the 103 figure effort last time out.
Alpha – Only a neck shy of Gemologist in the Wood after appearing to get the lead ever so briefly at one point in the stretch. Continues to improve and may not have topped out yet. Had some traffic problems early and late in the Wood and worked well before shipping to Kentucky.
You can follow Ellis on Twitter @ubercapper and get his complete Oaks and Derby Day selections at equibase.com!
The run of the roses is upon us! In two days’ time our eyes will be fixed upon the beautiful Churchill Downs racetrack for the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby. This year’s race is shaping up to be nothing short of thrilling. Most of these brutes ran against each other in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in November with Hansen being the eventual winner. There were 13 horses in the BC Juvenile and out of those 13; nine of them went on to win graded stakes races in 2012.
From speed horses to the closers this race seems to have it all. Regarding the speed you have horses like Bodemiester, Hansen, Take Charge Indy, I’ll Have Another and Trinniberg. All of these horses like to be out in front or pretty close to the lead. With this much speed I presume they will likely tire each other out. This scenario should benefit horses such as Union Rags, El Padrino and Creative Cause who like to sit just off the lead and make their move around the final turn. Horses such as Daddy Nose Best and Alpha will be the big time closers making their move from the back of the pack.
Running in the Derby can be quite a challenge. These horses will rarely be involved in another field size such as this and most will find out that the mile and a quarter distance is too much to handle. Throw in other factors such as the post position and the weather and now the mountain you wanted to climb just got that much bigger.
With all of this being said I will disclose my top five picks for this year’s Derby. Keep in mind this list is just reflecting who I think will actually win the Derby; the exotics are a whole different story my friends…
Top Five Win Candidates
1 – Union Rags (PP- 4, ML = 9/2): The colt that tops my list this year is none other than Union Rags. Number two on my list is the powerful Union Rags. The Michael Matz trainee finished third in the Gr. I Florida Derby back on March 31st. This is another colt that has yet to finish off the board and like Creative Cause he always seems to have more run in him. Union Rags has had some very nice workouts since being at Churchill Downs which is why he is still one of my top contenders. The fast pace should be very beneficial to the Dixie Union Colt. Julien Leparoux will be the rider aboard Union Rags.
2 – Gemologist (PP-15, ML = 6/1): Number two on my list is the undefeated Gemologist. The Tiznow colt has climbed up in my top two due to his recent workouts and his strong finish last time out. The bay ran a solid race in the Gr. I Wood Memorial holding off a late rallying Alpha. Gemologist also has two wins at Churchill Downs so far in his career so this is a plus in my eyes. I feel Gemologist has taken one of the easier roads coming into the Derby but I do like his pedigree and he should last a little longer than some of the other speed horses. Javier Castellano will be the riding Gemologist on Saturday.
3 – Creative Cause (PP-8, ML = 12/1): The colt that rounds out my top three is none other than Creative Cause. The son of Giant’s Causeway has yet to finish off the board in all eight of his career starts. Creative Cause has finished strong in all of his races and always appears to have more in his tank. The extra distance should prove valuable to the Mike Harrington trainee. Jockey Joel Rosario will be in the irons for the grey come Derby day.
4 – Daddy Nose Best (PP-10, ML = 15/1): This colt is one I have been big on since seeing his win in the Gr. III El Camino Stakes at Golden Gate. He has ran against some stiff competition and has shown his heart when it matters down the stretch. I also like the fact that this horse has ran well over numerous tracks. The ‘Daddy’ has been working very well at Churchill since his arrival and with Garrett Gomez taking over the saddle, I am expecting this bay to run very well.
5 – El Padrino (PP-16, ML = 20/1): Finishing off my top five is the chestnut colt trained by Todd Pletcher. El Padrino was recently seen finishing fourth behind Union Rags in the Gr. I Florida Derby under Javier Castellano. After watching this race several times I still think Castellano was more worried about Union Rags than anything else. Rafael Bejarano will take the mount on El Padrino come Derby Day and I think this will be a plus for the son of Pulpit. This horse also seems to flourish on a wet surface so if it is wet come Derby Day, he will likely be my top pick.
The post position draw is over, now all that’s left is a long wait ’till Saturday’s 138th Kentucky Derby!
Spend that time on Derby Wars brushing up on your tournament skills and qualify for the $50,000 Derby Day Shootout!
Thursday we’ve got a Qualifier with 8 spots, featuring CD, BEL & HOL.
Friday’s your last day to qualify, so get in the Super Satellite offering 10 spots to the $50,000 Shootout. Friday is also the start of the $5,000 Winner-Take-All Oaks/Derby Survivor! Enter today – it’s only $5, and you can get up to 3 entries.
Saturday is the $50,000 Derby Day Shootout, and that $20,000 First Prize has your name on it! If you don’t want to mess with a qualifier, you can buy-in to the Shootout for $175. There’s still time to get in and earn the Early Bird bonus, too!
Play the Derby on Derby Wars – Saturday, May 5!
Are you ready for Derby Day on Derby Wars?
We’ve got 2 big games to celebrate the greatest 2 minutes in sports!
The biggest day in racing is the perfect day to win the biggest prize in Derby Wars history!
$50,000 Derby Day Shootout
You’re going to be playing the Derby day card anyway, so why not put your picks to the test in a Derby Wars tournament? The Derby Day $50K features the always-deep Churchill Downs Derby undercard races, like the Humana Distaff and Turf Classic.
It’s all topped by the 138th Kentucky Derby, one that already promises to be the deepest we’ve seen in years. With such talented horses as Union Rags, Hansen, Bodemeister and Creative Cause, even the favorites will pay handsomely – not to mention the live longshots!
First prize is $20,000, with $7,500 for second place. We’ll pay out all the way down to 40th place!
The $50,000 Derby Day Shootout has a buy-in of $175, and is limited to 325 entries. Players can buy up to 2 entries. You can win your way into the game in our daily qualifiers, which start as low as $25! Check the tournament board for all the available qualifiers and Super Satellites.
You could also cash in the $5,000 Oaks/Derby Survivor!
This Winner-Take-All survivor includes the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, May 4, the Kentucky Derby on May 5, plus 3 other stakes races. It’s only $5 to enter and 5 races to pick (and the horse just has to run 3rd to score!). We suggest buying the maximum 3 entries for your best chance to survive!
Both the $50,000 Derby Day Shootout and the $5,000 Oaks/Derby Survivor are now taking entries, so don’t wait until Derby day to secure your spot in the field!
This guest post is by Lenny Moon of Equinometry.
Skim through the past performances of any race card at any track on any day and you will find a diverse group of races. Races on the main track, be it dirt or synthetic, and races on the turf, sprints and routes, races for fillies and races for colts, maiden races, claiming races, allowance races and stakes races, big fields and small fields. No two races are exactly alike but a general handicapping strategy can be applied to those that have similar conditions.
The same principle is true of handicapping contests. Handicapping contests come in all different shapes and sizes and no two are ever exactly the same but those that have similar conditions can be approached in the same way.
The first step in handicapping a race is to read the conditions of the race in order to determine what type of horse is most likely to win. Similarly the first step in preparing for a handicapping contest is to read the rules (or conditions) of the contest to determine what it will take to win. Derby Wars for example offers several types of handicapping contests including: Head to Head, Survivor and Traditional Format.
Head to Head contests pit two players against one another in a winner-takes-all competition where the only goal is to accumulate a higher score than your opponent.
Survivor contests require the players to select one horse to finish first, second or third in each race. If a players horse fails to finish in the top three that player is eliminated. The player that lasts the longest is declared the winner.
Traditional Format contests are the most common type of contests and require the players to select one horse in each of the designated contest races. Players are awarded a mythical $2 to Win and Place on their selection if the horse finishes first or second. The player with the highest score at the end of the contest wins.
When handicapping a race it is beneficial to know what the Par Time or Par Speed Figure is for each race. This allows you to quickly determine which horses are capable of producing an effort that will win a normal race with the given conditions.
Similarly it is very helpful to know the Par Score for a handicapping contest. The Par Score for a handicapping contest can be determined by looking at the results of similar contests. For example after looking at several years results for Traditional Handicapping Contests I determined the Par Score to be $11.12 per race. So for a 10 race contest the Par Score (or average winning total) would be $111.20, although to be safe I usually round up to the next dollar and shoot for a total of $120.00 (or $12.00 per race).
The most important thing to remember when determining the Par Score is to look at handicapping contests that have similar rules (or conditions), similar field sizes and similar entry fees. Fortunately most online handicapping sites keep an archive of their past contests which makes determining the Par Score only a few minutes of work. To access past contests results on Derby Wars simply click the Closed tab on the home page and every contest that has been offered is available for review.
As previously mentioned Head to Head contests involve two players. With the smallest possible field size it can be assumed that on average the Par Score is going to be relatively low. The best strategy for Head to Head contests is to shoot for the highest strike rate (rate of picking winners) and avoid trying to connect on one or two low probability long shots only resorting to the latter if the other player has a large lead late in the contest. The focus should be on picking the horse you believe is the most likely winner.
Survivor contests are simple enough, just pick one horse to finish in the top three and move on, but they are not as easy as one would think. Picking the favorite in every race would be the safest strategy but considering the favorite will finish out of the top three roughly once every three races that is a surefire path to failure. Likewise picking long shots that few players selected will also be a quick path to elimination because long shots finish in the money infrequently. The best strategy is to pick logical horses that fit on the fundamentals of handicapping: Form, Class, Speed and Pace. I prefer horses that can be classified as pace pressers or stalkers, that is they sit behind the frontrunners but ahead of the closers. The reason I avoid frontrunners and closers is they are at the mercy of the pace. Frontrunners that get caught in a speed duel typically tire in the stretch and finish off the board. Closers that find themselves behind a slow pace are at a similar disadvantage and may not be able to make up enough ground to catch the top three in the stretch.
Traditional Format contests (called Bullets on Derby Wars) are those that involve a set number of races in which each player is given a $2 Win and Place mythical wager on their selection. The goal is to accumulate the highest score. This type of contest has a much more complex strategy than the other two formats. The field size and entry fee will determine the best strategy for Traditional Format contests.
The size of the field will effect the Par Score and whether or not to be aggressive or conservative. The smaller the field the more likely the Par Score will be lower and therefore players can be more conservative in their selections. The larger the field the more likely the Par Score will be higher and therefore players should be more aggressive in their selections. The reason behind this is that an impossible long shot is more likely to be selected when more players are involved and vice versa.
Just like field size the entry fee will effect the Par Score and whether or not to be aggressive or conservative. Contests with smaller entry fees typically attract newer players that are more likely to select higher priced horses. Contests with higher entry fees typically attract veteran players that are more likely to select mostly logical horses.
Handicapping before the races begin is the best strategy when betting on horses and likewise handicapping the contest races before the contest starts is the best strategy for handicapping contests. After handicapping each of the races make a list of contenders grouping the horses into three categories: top choice, back-ups and bomb horses. Top Choice is the most likely winner according to your handicapping. Back-ups are the next most likely winners. Bomb horses are long shots (12/1 or higher) that have some chance of winning (and can also be part of one of the other groups).
The general rule of thumb is to select mostly horses in the range of 5/1 to 15/1, although it is also acceptable to accept a few above or below that range. The mix of prices should be determined based on how aggressive or conservative the overall strategy will be based on the criteria mentioned above. Just remember that most contests are not won by picking all favorites and most are not won by picking all long shots.
After coming up with a list of contenders for each race make a schedule of the races with post times and contenders (or you can use the tool I created for just this purpose, The Handicapping Tournament Matrix, which you can download for free after signing up for my email newsletter).
Doing your homework will make life a lot easier and will allow making adjustments after scratches are announced the day of the contest much easier. Do not ignore scratches or program changes as they can have a huge impact on the outcome of a race. Take a few minutes to reassess each race that has changes and make adjustments to your selections accordingly.
In horse racing many races are won and lost in the first quarter of a mile. Getting out of the gate and getting into a comfortable position is the most important part of the race. Similarly getting off to a good start in a handicapping contest is very important because…
In American horse racing Speed is widely recognized as the universal bias especially in main track races. Frontrunners win more than their fair share of races. Frontrunners simply go to the lead, run as fast as they can for as long as they can and hope to hold on.
From my experience frontrunners also do very well in handicapping contests. The players that start off strong are usually at the top of the leader board at the end of the day. This idea was reinforced while I was preparing for the National Handicapping Championship (NHC) earlier this year. The NHC has been held for the past 12 years, the last 11 of which are under the current format. In those 11 years the winner was:
Only one winner was worse than 28th after the first day in 11 editions of the NHC and this year was no exception. Michael Beychok was in 24th after Day 1 before rallying late on Day 2 to win the million dollar top prize by a single dollar.
The biggest advantage of starting off strong is being able to stick with your selections. Most of my good recent performances including my fifth place finish in the March Derby Wars $25,000 Shootout and my fifth place finish in the Twinspires Online Handicapping Championship occurred because I started off strong and was able to stick with my top selections throughout the contests. In the handicapping contests I performed poorly in recently I got off to a poor start in every one of them and therefore had to either go with my third or fourth choice or even worse had to select a horse I deemed a non-contender during my preparation.
In the event that you get off to a poor start be patient but be flexible as well. Stick with your top choices for as long as possible because they are the horses that you have selected as the most likely winners but do not be afraid to select a back-up or bomb horse if the price is right. Remember that slow and steady wins the race and you are more likely to slowly grind your way back to the top then to do so in one race. I say this from years of experience trying it the other way.
Serious horseplayers know that reviewing each bet made and keeping detailed records is vital to becoming and staying a winner and so do serious handicapping contest players. Each contest should be a learning experience used to improve future results. Review both winning and losing selections and determine what worked and what did not. Make note of any important discoveries that may lead to winning selections in the future. This step is often forgotten or overlooked by most handicapping contest players so those that do it will be a step ahead of the competition.
Handicapping contests are no different than every day handicapping. The players that understand what strategies to employ based on the conditions (or rules) of the contest will be the ones that have the most success. Just remember that success will come with experience and to those that take the time to prepare ahead of time and to review their results afterwards. Good luck and do not hesitate to send me a friend request here on Derby Wars if you want to say hello or want to chat about horse racing. My username is Equinometry.
Lenny Moon is an avid horseplayer and handicapping contest player who has spent the past 13 years trying to master the art of handicapping and betting on horses. He is also the founder of Equinometry.com, a website designed to help horseplayers of all levels learn about horse racing handicapping, betting and handicapping contests.
By Tony Bada Bing
So we find ourselves, Derby War Players, in a ‘tweener stage – in between last week’s $30K game and the Derby Day $50K game. Can’t wait for the first Saturday in May? Great, you can still pick up a $1,500 winner’s check in Saturday’s Big Game. With the closing weekends of both Aqueduct and Santa Anita as part of tournament play, I just want to warn you that funky things happen at the end of track meeting dates.
During the final weekends of the New York Thoroughbred tracks, my grandfather swore the trainers and jocks colluded in allowing those human connections without a lot of wins and purse money, the chance to cash in and…frustrate bettors with outrageous prices.
While I’m unsure of my grandfather’s long standing complaint, I do know higher prices do have a way of showing themselves in a meet’s final days. With this in mind, I will present long shots a plenty, many without rhyme or reason. My grandfather would be proud!
Race 5 Aqueduct, state-bred maiden claimers, 6 furlongs
If ever a race called out for a first-time starter this is it. A bunch of NY-breds, many that have earned single and/or negative Beyer figures. (By the way, how does one race at less than zero?) Trainer Thomas Bush hasn’t had a first-timer win in two years, but Missile Nick has fired two bullet works and posted three other fast times. You’ll get more than 10-1 for sure.
Race 5 Aqueduct, state-bred maiden special weight, 6 furlongs
The Kenosha Kid comes off a disappointing debut in which he retreated to the back of the pack before showing some interest late in a six furlong affair. Trainer Chris Englehart wins at 26% for second time maidens and this one finished closer than the horse directly to his inside, who has a morning line of 7-2. Almost a no-brainer…
Race 8 Aqueduct, optional claimer, 1 1/16 miles on the turf
Don’t you think graded-stakes placed King Congie will need this race for conditioning before moving on to bigger and better things? I do. So the one with the most recent win, Eternal Ruler, with his 1-for-15 trainer get the call at 8-1. This may be too logical, but sometimes logic can lead to correct picks…sometimes…
Race 9 Aqueduct, Grade II Jerome Stakes, 1 mile
Let me get this straight – Stirred Up, the 2-1 favorite, finished eight lengths behind the winner in a dull Sunland Derby effort, and the longest shot, Adirondack King at 12-1, finished about 5 lengths behind a much stronger Rebel winner??? OK, I’ll take the King to out finish all.
Race 4 Santa Anita, starter allowance, 6½ furlongs
These starter allowance races can be written so stakes horses can race against much weaker competition, if only he had started for a tag in the last two years. Well, this event shapes up more like a $30,000 non-winners of one claimer. With no multiple winners in the field, I say take the most recent winner in here – Already There, who just may have found a rider that figured him out in his last race.
Santa Anita, San Simeon Grade III, 6½ furlongs down the hill
You could do worst than picking a graded-stakes placed horse from 6 ½ furlongs on the turf to 9 furlongs on the dirt. Victory Pete has run some of his best races going down the hill. Sure he hasn’t won in two years, all the more reason to take him – he’s due!
Remember to stop making sense for at least part of your tournament day and take some bombs that figure or don’t. The waning days of any affair are bound by rules that simply don’t apply during the opening hours. Good luck in whatever you play the Big $5K Game at Derby Wars.
Our tech gurus have been working non-stop to make Derby Wars faster and easier for you to use. This week, we unveil a new tournament board that has all your games right at your fingertips!
Here’s a quick tour of the new menu:
Upcoming: Beneath this tab, open games you will find. The ones closing soonest will be listed at the top as usual, with the countdown clock ticking. When you arrive at the Derby Wars homepage, this is the first game list you will see. Since we usually have so many games available, we’ve now made it easier for you to find the game you want to play – just click on one of the new tabs!
Head 2 Head: This is the place for all the one-on-one, mano-e-mano, winner-take-all tournaments.
Points: The name says it all – you use points to enter, and you earn more points when you win. Some points games offer cash prizes or tokens, so keep an eye out here if you’re jonesing to be the next ChuckK, who just won $10,000 in the $30K Shootout – he won his way into the big game on points!
10 & Under: If you want a small, intimate game with just a few close friends (or frenemies), check out this tab. All of the games with 10 or fewer entries will be listed here.
Running: So you didn’t make it in for the day’s Big Game, but you still want to know who’s winning? This tab is where all of the currently-running games are hanging out. You can check out the leaderboard, compare your picks with those of your friends, and even jump in the chat!
Closed: These games are over. It’s too late to enter them, and the chat’s all done, but you can still check out the leaderboard and see the winner’s picks.
My Games: All of your upcoming, running, and closed games are in this group. The upcoming ones are at the top, with the clock ticking down. When you first come to Derby Wars, check out the My Games button to go straight to the games that you’ve pre-entered!
And that’s the new tournament board menu – Check it out today and find your best game!
NOTE: If you’re not seeing the new menu, simply press the “Ctrl” and “F5” keys at the same time to refresh your screen. The new menu should appear.
Derby Wars hosted the biggest contest in our brief history this past weekend with the $30,000 April Shootout! There were 195 entries at $175 apiece and the event consisted of 15 races from Aqueduct, Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby Day and Keeneland on Blue Grass Stakes Day.
Although many of the 15 contest races had double-digit field sizes, there were no big-priced winners in the tournament and the winning score from $15 mythical $2 win-place plays was merely $96.20. And grinding out the victory was chuckk, Chuck Kuehhas from New York City, a long-time DRF employee whose name occasionally pops up in the selection boxes of ‘America’s Turf Authority’.
Read the complete recap by Dave Gutfreund here.
We are experiencing a glitch where some Firefox users cannot see the prize list and rules details. Below is the prize list and rules for the $30,000 Monthly Shootout for April.
