Mom always said, “I’d be judged by the company I kept.” This quote made famous by President Kennedy was usually spouted during some teenage indiscretion, rule broken or moral dilemma. In the world of Thoroughbreds, trainers and owners constantly try to find the right company for their equine athletes – whether it be a bottom-level claiming event at a racino or the ultimate prize – a graded stakes race. In turn, handicappers or Big Game tournament players, must take company lines into consideration in judging which horse they think will either breakthrough at the new condition, out class others by dropping down into inferior company or simply holding form.
For today’s $30,000 Shootout at Derby Wars, I will base potential tournament choices on my perceptions of the horse’s class. I will look solely at the graded stakes on tap.
Grade II Commonwealth Stakes, 7 furlongs on Keenland’s polytrack
The first two entries, which also happen to fit my topic of class perfectly, could be instructive for today’s Big Game play. Breaking from the rail, five-year-old Comedero has found racing success the last two years running in high-level listed, but not graded stakes. While he shows a win in his last race, it was listed for Arkansas-breds like himself. While he has the rail and the current form, I am surprised at his 2-1 morning line simply based on who he has run against.
Listed at slightly lower odds, Right One, has run primarily in graded stakes company since
making his way from France last April. His top efforts include a grade III win at today’s distance and a neck defeat in the always competitive, Grade I Woodbine Mile. You’ll have to get over the five-month layoff and the fact most of the gelding’s success is on turf.
Finally, a long shot alternative Bergerac presents a case for the Big Game player taking a flyer on a horse jumping up in class. The five-year-old gelding has found most success in higher-level allowances with only periodic attempts at stakes company. What’s changed? Chad Brown has claimed Bergerac for $80K after he finished a half a length behind in a turf routing affair. This is a costly claim for a savvy trainer, who most likely had a graded stakes on his mind. Ignore him at your own risk.
Grade III Shakertown, 5 ½ furlongs on Keenland’s turf
Perfect Officer certainly belongs based upon his efforts last year running with the top of the turf sprinting class. A long layoff is negated with Tony Dutrow training.
Chamberlain Bridge is an owner’s dream – an eight-year-old gelding that continues to get paid at the stakes level. An 18-time winner and Breeder’s Cup Champ at 4-1 is a beautiful thing.
Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, 9 furlongs on Keenland’s polytrack
Look Hansen certainly belongs and his favorite status is warranted, but 6-5 in a 13-horse field, sorry he’s a pass in the Big Game.
Prospective certainly didn’t keep his company well in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – finishing some 20 lengths behind Hansen on that day, but…he’s proven on the fake racing surface, exited the Juvenile with two stakes victory and runner up finish. He’s also 10-1 racing for the somewhat underrated Mark Casse, who does most of his training work north of the border.
$100K Northern Spur, 1 mile at Oaklawn
Drill belongs, but he’s likely using this race as a prep for the Preakness Stakes. Now a two-time graded stakes winner may just overpower this field on class alone. You get around even money to find out.
Pee H Dee looks to be the best fit – success at this level and attempts at graded company that didn’t pan out lead me to believe he’s right where he belongs. He also beat Z Rockstar in an allowance race; Z Rockstar then beat Explain, who has a lower morning line than Pee H Dee?????
Grade II Oaklawn Handicap, 9 furlongs at Oaklawn
Win Willy is a five-time winner at the track and a former Oaklawn Handicap winner. He belongs and is being overlooked and most likely will be under bet due to a poor start in his last.
Grade I Arkansas Derby, 9 furlongs at Oaklawn
Secret Circle’s class has been confirmed; his limitations are based on observers who feel he can’t get the distance based on breeding and how he was all out to win at 8 ½ furlongs. The Factor supposedly had the same limitations last year, and we know how that turned out.
Good luck in today’s $30,000 Shootout and finding your own class….
